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Indiana Pacers’ Odds Of Moving Up In The 2023 NBA Draft Lottery





NBA Deputy Commissioner Mark Tatum, left, laughs with Patrick Ewing of the New York Knicks during ... [+] the NBA basketball draft lottery Tuesday, May 14, 2019, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Nuccio DiNuzzo)
Copyright 2019The Associated Press. All rights reservedThe 2023 NBA Draft Lottery is in a few days, and the Indiana Pacers are hoping for the luck of the draw for the third year in a row. They had the 13th overall pick in 2021 and sixth overall pick in 2022.





Last year, the team had the fifth-best lottery odds after a hellish 25-57 campaign, but the Pacers did not end up jumping up via the ping pong ball drawing. Instead, they fell to sixth after the Sacramento Kings moved into the top four and the rest of the lottery followed the odds.



That sixth pick was still the highest the Pacers had owned since the 1980s, and they used it on Bennedict Mathurin, who recently was named to the All-Rookie first team. He had a special year, and Indiana will hope to repeat that success in the lottery again this time around.





“The very top of it is obviously impactful,” Pacers head coach Rick Carlsile said of the 2023 draft class. “When you get to the next tier, you’re looking at some really talented guys.”



This year, the Pacers lottery odds are lower than last year. They finished tied for the seventh-worst record this time around, so they are lower in the inverse standings. That weakens their odds, though they are still strong after the NBA changed the lottery structure in 2019.

Indiana and Washington finished with the same record (35-47), so they are splitting the average odds of the seventh and eighth lottery slots. A random coin flip performed in mid April determined that the Pacers would finish higher than the Wizards in the draft order if neither team jumped up in the lottery, and that also gives the blue and gold one extra ping pong ball combination in the lottery process. 1,001 combinations exist for the lottery drawing, and all but one of them correspond to one of the 14 lottery teams.


Because the Pacers sit in seventh in the pre-lottery draft order, they could pick anywhere between one and four as well as anywhere between seven and 11. The top-four picks are decided via the drawing of ping pong balls, and the remaining lottery teams are placed in the inverse order of the standings.



The NBA’s changed lottery system from 2019 flattened the odds for lottery teams, skewing them away from the teams with the worst record. It also added a fourth drawing — only the top-three picks used to be decided by the drawing.



In the old system, the team in the seventh slot — like Indiana is this year — would have had a 4.3% chance at the number one pick. When accounting for the split with Washington, those odds would have dropped to 3.5%. There would have been a 12.5% chance for either team to jump into the top three picks.

Instead, the Pacers odds look much better this season. They can be seen in this table on Tankathon as well. Note that there is some rounding involved with these numbers.

First overall pick: 6.8%

Second overall pick: 7.1%

Third overall pick: 7.5%

Fourth overall pick: 7.9%

Overall chance at moving into the top four: 29.4%

The Pacers had better than a 42% chance to move into the top four last season, but it was not to be. They will be happy with Mathurin either way.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JUNE 23: Bennedict Mathurin poses for photos on the red carpet during the 2022 ... [+] NBA Draft at Barclays Center on June 23, 2022 in New York City. (Photo by Arturo Holmes/Getty Images)
Getty Images“All teams have to draft well,” Pacers guard T.J. McConnell said last summer.

If Indiana doesn’t move up via the lottery drawing, they will hope that none of the teams below them in the inverse standings move up and they remain at seven. The odds they end up at their possible non-lottery pick locations are as follows, per Tankathon.

Seventh: 19.7%

Eighth: 35.6%

Ninth: 13.8%

Tenth: 1.4%

11th: Less than 0.2%

If infinite simulations of the lottery were run, the weighted average of the Pacers draft slot would be 6.4, per Tankathon, though they can’t actually end up with the sixth overall pick. Their median outcome is between the seventh and eighth picks, which are the two most likely spots for the franchise to end up. It is more likely that a team behind the Pacers in the inverse standings jumps them in the lottery than Indiana moving up themselves, which is why the eighth slot is the most likely.

There is nothing a team can do to change the lottery odds of its pick slot. The Indiana Pacers are at the mercy of luck during next Tuesday’s lottery, and they will hope to move up into the top four and pick inside the top five for the first time since 1988.



Tony East, Contributor
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyeast/2023/05/13/indiana-pacers-odds-of-moving-up-in-the-2023-nba-draft-lottery/
By: Tony East, Contributor
Title: Indiana Pacers’ Odds Of Moving Up In The 2023 NBA Draft Lottery
Sourced From: www.forbes.com/sites/tonyeast/2023/05/13/indiana-pacers-odds-of-moving-up-in-the-2023-nba-draft-lottery/
Published Date: 05-13-2023

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the difference of a technical foul and a foul flagrantly in the NBA

A technical foul is an offense in the NBA for being unsportsmanlike. It can be argued with officials, excessive celebrations or other such behavior. A technical foul allows you to make one free throw, while the opposing team can also take possession of your ball.

A flagrant foul refers to a player who makes abusive or violent contact against another player. It will result in the opposition team being given two free throws and taking possession of your ball. Flagrant one and flagrant two are the two types of flagrant fouls. Flagrant one is a lesser offense than Flagrant 2 and doesn't result in an ejection.

A personal foul is an illegal contact between players on the court. This usually refers to illegal hand-checking, pushing, pushing, or tripping an opponent. Personal fouls can lead to free throws or the possession of ball for the other team. Personal fouls, however, are not considered unsportsmanlike, unlike flagrant and technical fouls.

All fouls in the NBA may result in free throw attempts for the opposing team or possession of the ball. The difference between a technical foul and a flagrant or personal foul lies in the intent behind them and the severity of contact committed.


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A trade exception in NBA allows teams to trade away any player. This exception allows teams to acquire players whose salaries are higher than those they traded away without making corresponding salary moves. A team can use this exception over multiple seasons, and it does not count against their salary cap or luxury tax threshold. Trade exceptions allow teams to change their rosters and not have to reduce their salaries. This allows teams to maintain a level playing field and prevent unfair financial advantage situations.

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If a NBA basketball player is let go during the season by their club, they are considered waived. Waived players have 48 hours to be claimed by another team. If more teams claim the player during that time, priority goes the team with poorest record.


Which NBA player is the NBA's all time scoring leader?

Lebron James is the NBA's all-time scoring leader. His career totals 38,388 points as of February 7th, 2023 . LeBron James second with 38,38th points on February 7th to break Karim's record. Karl Malone is third with 36,928. Kobe Bryant ranks fourth with 33 643 points. And Michael Jordan is in fifth place with 32,292 points.


What are the salaries of NBA players?

The NBA average salary for 2021-2022 is $7.3 million. This number is based on the $134million salary cap, which was established for this season. However, individual players' salaries can vary greatly depending on their experience and accomplishments.

Kevin Durant and LeBron James are superstar players who can make upwards of $40 million per year. Rookies, on the other hand, may only earn $898,310. Other veteran players may be eligible for mid-level exception salaries ranging from $4.76 million to $9.258 million, depending on their years of experience. A player may be eligible to receive bonuses or other incentives depending on how they perform or the success of their team.


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The Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers hold the title of the biggest rivalry in the NBA.

With 12 meetings, the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers have been together the most of any NBA Finals teams. The Celtics have won nine times in those meetings. They met for the first time in 1959. However, they continued to excel during the years that followed, particularly in the 1960s and 1980s when they would meet six and three times, respectively. They still met twice in that same year, despite the fact that 2000 was a new millennium.


Which NBA player has the most blocked shots in one season?

Mark Eaton set the all-time records for blocks (456) and blocks per game (5.56) in a season during 1984-85. Eaton's total in that season was the highest single-season NBA number.

Hakeem Olajuwon currently holds the NBA record for most career blocks, with 3,830. Olajuwon was averaging 21.8 points per game, 11.1rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 3.0 blocks over his 18-year professional career.


Statistics

  • Williams would 'likely' accept a deal worth $14-15M/year; Celtics are 'unlikely' to offer such a deal (HoopsHype) (bleacherreport.com)
  • "NBA first-round ratings drop 27 percent, 40 percent since 2017–18". (en.wikipedia.org)
  • The 2013–14 season opened with 92 international players on the opening night rosters, representing 39 countries and over 20 percent of the league. (en.wikipedia.org)
  • Between 2012 and 2019, the league lost 40 to 45 percent of its viewership. (en.wikipedia.org)
  • The 2013–14 season opened with 92 international players on the opening night rosters, representing 39 countries and over 20% of the league. (en.wikipedia.org)

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